According to the “experts,” the downturn is all but over.The majority of economists say so. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Foreign Policy‘s top global thinker for 2009, apparently feels that way. One of the world’s richest investors is betting on it, along with most money managers. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is positive, too.

And yet, as the following two reports indicate, those who are closest to the action on the ground, business owners and managers, appear to believe otherwise [red italics mine]:

“Grant Thornton LLP Business Optimism Index Reports Little Change With U.S. Senior Executives”

Slight uptick in hiring, but majority now believe recession won’t end until second half of 2010 or later

CHICAGO – Grant Thornton LLP’s Business Optimism Index, a quarterly confidence measure of U.S. business leaders, remained relatively steady at 60.4 in November (it was 60.9 in August 2009). More business leaders say that their companies plan to increase staffing in the next six months – up to 30 percent from 26 percent in August. However, the business leaders’ outlook for the future continues to shift, with only one-third (33%) now saying that they expect the economy to come out of recession by the first half of 2010, compared to 58 percent in August 2009.

The survey found that U.S. business leaders’ sentiments toward the U.S. economy have decreased slightly, with 53 percent of the respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 58 percent in August 2009. On the other hand, they are more positive about the outlook for their own businesses, with 79 percent feeling optimistic about their companies’ growth over the next six months, compared to 73 percent in August 2009.

	11/2008	2/2009	5/2009	8/2009	11/2009
OVERALL Business Optimism Index	35.6	37.6	54.5	60.9	60.4
Believe U.S. economy will improve	13%	17%	45%	58%	53%
Believe U.S. economy will worsen	63%	49%	13%	7%	13%
Very or somewhat optimistic about own business	44%	43%	62%	73%	79%
Very or somewhat pessimistic about own business	57%	57%	38%	27%	21%
Plan to increase staff	15%	9%	20%	26%	30%
Plan to decrease staff	43%	45%	30%	18%	18%

When do you think the economy will come out of recession?
	8/2009	11/2009
Before the end of 2009	15%	10%
First half of 2010	27%	23%
Second half of 2010	35%	46%
2011	17%	19%
Later	7%	3%

* Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

About the Grant Thornton Business Optimism Index
The Grant Thornton Business Optimism Index, a quarterly survey of U.S. business leaders, comprises three measures:

• U.S. economy: Business leaders’ perceptions of whether the U.S. economy will improve, remain the same or deteriorate in the next six months.
• Business growth: Business leaders’ perceptions about the growth of their own businesses over the next six months.
• Hiring expectations: Whether business leaders expect the number of people their companies employ to increase, remain the same or decrease in the next six months.

The survey was conducted between Nov. 3 and Nov. 17, 2009. More than 360 senior executives from various industries responded to the survey. To see all the survey findings, please visit www.GrantThornton.com/BOI.

“Survey: Small Business Owners Mixed on Hiring Outlook” (Pittsburgh Business Times)

The stock market may have rebounded, but 44 percent of small business owners don’t believe the recession will end for them before late 2010, according to a report Huntington Bancshares Inc., Columbus, released Tuesday.

Huntington (Nasdaq:HBAN) surveyed 200 small business owners operating in the Midwest. Huntington operates in six states and is the Pittsburgh region’s seventh largest bank according to deposits.

Respondents gave mixed reports on when — or if — they expect to hire: 24 percent said they would rehire in second quarter 2010, 22 percent said it wouldn’t happen until 2011 and 16 percent don’t expect they’ll ever reach their pre-recession staff levels. Some 29 percent said they laid off staff, 34 percent froze salaries and 33 percent reduced staff hours.

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/